Future heatwaves in a 2oC world: their uncertainty, causes and role of circulation
Dr. Robin Clark
Met Office Hadley Centre, UK
In November 2015, a worldwide UN agreement was achieved to limit globally averaged temperature increases to 2oC. However, for adaptation and impact mitigation efforts, LOCAL temperature increases, and their VARIABILITY, will be of greater importance than the globally average value.
A global average of 2oC is unlikely to be uniform since less heating is expected over the oceans compared to over land. This talk will describe how to produce a set of climate change projections with globally averaged increases of 2oC. Changes in temperature during extreme hot days, and their uncertainty will be shown in the talk. Reasons for the uncertainty will be discussed, including the effects of soil moisture, model parameters and future circulation changes.