Evaluating and improving predictions of the east Asian climate: challenges and opportunities

Dr. Kalli Furtado
Met Office, UK

2019年4月23日（星期二）10:00
3号楼1118会议室

报告会主持人：张丽霞 副研究员

Abstract

The Climate Science for Services Partnership (CSSP) for China is a research co-operation between the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the United Kingdom’s Met Office, partly funded by the UK Newton Fund. Work Package 4 (WP4) of the partnership aims to evaluate and improve the physical processes in numerical models which underpin weather predictions and climate projections, thereby enabling improvements to advice and services. In this talk, I will use examples from ongoing collaborations to illustrate how the work-level partnerships fostered by CSSP China are leading to improved understanding of the east Asia monsoon and improvements in the ability of Met Office to predict monsoon climates on a range of length- and time-scales. Time permitting, examples will include: the use of novel techniques for diagnosing the sources of model errors (for example, regional “nudging” experiments); the application of convective-scale models for individual case studies and regional climate; the development of cloud-aerosol microphysics schemes; the use of perturbed parameter ensembles for understanding model errors and constraining uncertainties in climate projections. I will also highlight some suggestions for deeper Met Office--IAP collaborations in the future, for example: opportunities for the co-development of global models..