Relationship between the North Atlantic Ocean and the North East Asian climate: variability and predictability
Dr. Paul-Arthur Monerie
University of Reading, UK
North East Asia has warmed substantially after the mid-1990’s leading to an increase in temperature extremes and to societal impacts. Predicting variability of the North East Asian climate is therefore of primordial interest. Using a decadal prediction system we have shown that it is possible to predict temperature over North East Asia up to 5 years ahead owing to a relationship between the North Atlantic Ocean and the East Asian climate. The mechanism linking North Atlantic and East Asia is then assessed by performing a set of climate simulations. The warming of the North Atlantic Ocean impacts the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the Pacific Ocean, hence leading to an increase in heat convergence and surface shortwave radiation over East Asia.
Dr. Paul-Arthur Monerie has done his PhD thesis at the climate research centre of Dijon (France) on the impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation using CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations and shown that a consistent pattern in precipitation change might emerge in a warmer climate. He has then been a postdoctoral fellow at Cerfacs (Toulouse, France) on climate predictability, focusing on the North Atlantic Ocean and the impact of volcanism during the hiatus period. He is now working at the University of Reading (UK) on seasonal-to-decadal predictability, mainly focusing on East Asia and Brazil.