Assessing the Complexities: Uncertainty and Economic Costs of Climate Change

 

Dr. Chao Li 

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

 

邀请人/报告会主持人 ：周天军 研究员

 

2023年7月25日（星期二）14:30

3号楼1218会议室

 

报告摘要:

The economic impacts of climate change are complicated and diverse, affecting many industries and geographical areas in various ways. Climate policy conversations and decisions are greatly influenced by estimates of the economic impacts of climate change. The process of calculating the economic impacts of climate change is difficult and imprecise, and estimates vary widely amongst studies based on their assumptions and techniques. The uncertainty of climate-related economic consequences as a result of the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties of climate change must be identified and addressed. In this talk, I'll give an overview of how the research on climate-related economic costs is coming along, as well as some insights into how much the internal variability in the atmosphere may affect economic costs and how long-lasting climate-related damage is and how that affects cost-benefit mitigation scenarios. I'll demonstrate that, compared to today's environment, a future warm temperature will have a significantly greater impact on economic growth due to internal climatic variability. Internal climate variability and the pattern scaling of climate change may have a significant impact on regional economic impacts. We must increase our knowledge and incorporate future changes in climate internal variability in the integrated assessment model for future scenario developments if we are to construct a plausible future adaptation and mitigation strategy plan.

 

报告人简介:

Dr. Chao Li is a senior researcher at Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M). He has been working on understanding future climate change and climate internal variability in response to the anthropogenic CO2 forcing and exploring plausible climate mitigation scenarios to limit future climate change. He is an authority in both integrated assessment models and complete earth system models. He has been working on interdisciplinary climate science since receiving his doctorate in natural sciences from MPI-M and the University of Hamburg in 2012. He is particularly interested in how future changes in climate and weather patterns will affect economic distributions, how climate-related uncertainty and variability in natural and social processes interact, and how to prototypically generate more believable scenarios of the climate future. He has made great contributions to Germany’s Excellence Strategy  –CLICCS– Climate, Climatic Change, and Society and to assess the plausibility of future scenarios in the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook.