Unveiling the Future of the Global Carbon Budget: Insights from Assimilative Earth System Models

 

Dr. Hongmei Li 

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

 

邀请人/报告会主持人 ：周天军 研究员

 

2023年7月25日（星期二）15:30

3号楼1218会议室 

 

报告摘要:

The global carbon budget, i.e., the proportion of anthropogenic carbon emissions that sink into the ocean and the land, and the remaining emissions that stay in the atmosphere, varies from year to year. Will atmospheric carbon growth be faster or slower in the next years? Both the intensity of emissions and the natural variability of the climate contribute to controlling the fluctuations in CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 levels. Previous studies on decadal predictions underline the advantages in predicting the evolution of the climate such as the temperature and circulations by initializing the climate models with observations. We extend the climate model predictions to the Earth System taking into account the biogeochemistry and global carbon cycle processes. We developed a new framework of Earth system modelling forced by CO2 emissions allowing prognostic atmospheric CO2 with an interactive carbon cycle to reconstruct and predict the GCB. Multi-model prediction systems in which physical atmospheric and oceanic data products are assimilated are able to reproduce the historical variations of the GCB and further predict changes in the next years. This seminar will review the development of assimilative Earth system models as a novel line supporting the annual assessment of GCB. 

 

报告人简介:

Dr. Hongmei Li is a senior researcher at Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M). She relocated to Hamburg in 2009 after completing her PhD studies at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). She has been working on understanding the global carbon cycle and its interactions with climate change. Dr. Hongmei Li has done pioneer studies on extending decadal predictions from climate physics to the carbon cycle. She has been coordinating multi-model activities towards reconstructing and predicting the global carbon budget variations. Besides involving in interdisciplinary research projects, she also actively contributed to international programmes such as the Grand Challenge on carbon feedbacks in the climate system of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the fifth and sixth Assessment Report (AR5 and AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).