Dynamical Understanding of the Midlatitude Jet Shift and Meandering under Climate Change

 

聂 羽 研究员

国家气候中心

 

邀请人/报告会主持人 ：张丽霞 研究员

 

2024年12月6日（周五）14:00

3号楼1218会议室 

 

报告摘要:

The midlatitude jet streams are the most prominent features in the atmospheric circulation. The latitudinal shifts of jet are highly correlated with major large-scale patterns of climate variability (e.g., annular mode). Large-amplitude meridional meandering of jet is often associated with regional weather extremes such as blocking events, bringing about disproportionate socioeconomic impacts over midlatitude continents. Yet, it is not well understood as to whether the mid-latitude jet will shift poleward or equatorward, and whether the jet will become wavier or less in response to climate change. 

In this talk, I will first show the sensitivity of jet shift to the upper- versus lower-level thermal forcing under climate change, and then show that changes to jet meandering under climate change are largely constrained by the optimal structures of the jet. This constraint further indicates a consistent decline in future waviness over the North Atlantic but uncertain changes over the North Pacific.

 

报告人简介:

聂羽，国家气候中心研究员，中国气象局青年气象英才。主要研究兴趣是从瞬变涡旋与大气环流相互作用的角度，开展中高纬持续性气候异常的动力学机理和预测研究。代表性成果包括：1）发现了大气低频涡旋通过重建大气斜压性、进而组织多尺度相互作用、维持环状模的新机制；2）量化了强非线性涡旋混合在中高纬区域气候变异中的关键作用；3）提出了气候变化背景下中纬度环流波动性未来预估的物理约束方法。发表包括JAS, JC, GRL等SCI论文30余篇。主持和骨干参加国家自然科学基金、国家重点研发计划等国家级项目多项。